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Making Better Assumptions

How to Capture Ideas and Create a Learning Experiment Backlog for Continuous Improvement

Whether you’re managing a team, running a business, or launching a new product, making informed decisions is vital. One of the best ways to ensure that your decisions are backed by solid reasoning is through the capture and testing of assumptions. In this article, we’ll explore how to make better assumptions, how to capture those ideas effectively, and how to create a learning experiment backlog for ongoing enhancement.

Understanding Assumptions

An assumption is something that you believe to be true without having any definitive proof. In the context of business and projects, assumptions can range from beliefs about customer behaviour to expectations regarding market trends. While assumptions can help guide decision-making, they can also lead to significant pitfalls if left untested.

The Importance of Testing Assumptions

Failing to evaluate assumptions can result in wasted resources, misguided strategies, and missed opportunities. By systematically capturing and testing these assumptions, you can:

  1. Reduce Uncertainty: Testing assumptions provides clarity and helps minimise risks.
  2. Foster Innovation: Encouraging team members to share their assumptions can spark creativity and lead to innovative solutions.
  3. Promote Learning: When assumptions are tested and validated or disproven, the resulting insights lead to continuous improvement.

Thus, capturing and validating assumptions becomes an essential practice for teams and individuals aiming for sustainable growth.

Capturing Assumptions: Where to Start

The first step towards effective experimentation is ensuring that assumptions are captured systematically. Here’s how you can go about it:

1. Create an Idea Capture System

Establish a dedicated space or platform where all team members can record their assumptions, ideas, and observations. Whether you prefer digital tools (like Trello, Notion, or Google Docs) or physical boards, choose a method that suits your team’s workflow.

Actionable Tip: Use a Template

Create a simple template to help capture assumptions. Your template could include the following fields:

  • Assumption: What is the belief you have?
  • Source: How did you arrive at this assumption? (e.g., customer feedback, data analysis)
  • Context: Under what conditions does this assumption hold true?
  • Impact: What would be the implications if this assumption is either true or false?
  • Experiment Idea: How would you test this assumption?

2. Encourage Open Dialogue

Foster a culture of open communication where team members feel comfortable sharing their assumptions without fear of judgement. Use regular meetings, brainstorming sessions, or even anonymous suggestion boxes to promote idea-sharing. Remember, no assumption is too small to capture!

3. Categorise Your Assumptions

To manage your assumptions efficiently, it’s helpful to categorise them. This could be based on areas such as:

  • Customer Behaviour
  • Product Features
  • Market Dynamics
  • Operational Processes

Categorisation makes it easier to prioritise which assumptions to test first and aligns your experiments with strategic objectives.

Creating a Learning Experiment Backlog

Once you’ve captured a healthy list of assumptions, the next step is to organise them into a learning experiment backlog. This backlog will serve as a roadmap for your experimentation process.

1. Prioritise Assumptions

Not all assumptions carry the same weight. Some may pose a higher risk or offer greater reward than others. Use a prioritisation framework like the ICE Score (Impact, Confidence, Ease) to evaluate each assumption.

  • Impact: What is the potential effect of this assumption on the business?
  • Confidence: How confident are you in this assumption’s accuracy?
  • Ease: How easy will it be to test this assumption?

Calculate the ICE score by multiplying the three ratings (on a scale of 1-10), and use the total score to rank your assumptions.

2. Define Experiments

For each assumption in your backlog, outline a clear and actionable experiment. Consider the following questions when designing your experiments:

  • What are you trying to learn?
  • What metric will you use to measure success?
  • What steps will you take to conduct the experiment?
  • What is the timeline for testing?

By laying out these details, you create a structured approach to your experiments.

3. Execute and Iterate

After planning your experiments, it’s time to put them into action. As you execute each experiment, maintain a cycle of iteration:

  • Observe the outcomes and gather data.
  • Reflect on what worked and what didn’t.
  • Adapt your assumptions and experiments based on the new insights gathered.

This iterative process forms the foundation of a learning culture within your organisation.

Case Study: A Real-World Example

Let’s illustrate this process with a hypothetical case study of a digital marketing agency.

Step 1: Capturing Assumptions

Team members capture several assumptions, including:

  • “Our target audience prefers long-form content over short posts.”
  • “Social media ads will yield higher engagement than email newsletters.”

Step 2: Creating a Backlog

Using the ICE scoring system, the team prioritises the assumptions, leading to the conclusion that testing the first assumption has the highest potential impact on engagement rates.

Step 3: Defining an Experiment

The team decides to conduct an A/B test, comparing the performance of long-form and short posts over a month. They decide to measure engagement rates based on shares, comments, and clicks.

Step 4: Execution and Iteration

After a month of testing, they discover that short posts actually perform better. Armed with this knowledge, they adapt their content strategy to favour brevity, continuing to test and iterate based on audience feedback.

Continuous Improvement: The End Goal

The ultimate goal of capturing assumptions and maintaining a learning experiment backlog is continuous improvement. Here’s how engaging in this practice can positively influence your organisation:

  1. Enhanced Decision-Making: With validated assumptions, decisions are more quantitatively backed and less based on guesswork.
  2. Increased Agility: Teams become more adaptable, quickly adjusting to new information and market changes.
  3. Stronger Team Collaboration: The process fosters greater teamwork, as everyone participates in shared learning and innovation.

Conclusion

Making better assumptions is pivotal for success across industries. By systematically capturing these assumptions, organising them into a learning experiment backlog, and fostering a culture of experimentation, you can shift your team’s focus from fear of failure to a mindset of discovery.

If implemented effectively, this approach not only leads to more informed decisions but also creates an environment ripe for continuous improvement. So, start today by capturing your assumptions and crafting your backlog – the path to innovation awaits! 

Remember, every great leap starts with understanding, and every understanding begins with questioning. Embrace the power of inquiry, and watch as your organisation transforms through the lens of disciplined experimentation.

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